Bayesian updating malfunctions

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I think my Bayesian updating isn’t working right due to the cold weather.  I experience day after day of sub freezing weather and then the next day get up and see sun and think, its going to be warmer today.  Every additional cold day is making me think the next is more likely going to be warm.  I need an adjustment.

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One Response to “Bayesian updating malfunctions”

  1. Stewart Says:

    Your priors are so strong that you “must” be hallucinating. I know it is hard, but you have to remember, we are not in Texas anymore.

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